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A Preliminary Language for a
Post-Global World

 

This information is directed at Professional Clients only and is not intended for public use.

Overview

This book sets out what we see as the key issues facing asset owners in the macro environment, and shares the outlook for capital markets, strategic allocation and the future of the investment industry. It will also explore how the next ten years are likely to be very different from the 1980–2020 period.

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  1. Part I: The Strategic Context
  2. Part II: The Role of Active Investing and Private Assets
  3. Part III: What is a Benchmark? What is Risk?

Part I: The Strategic Context
 

Investors face a change in investment regime driven by the macro mega forces of demographics, deglobalization and climate change, as well as the rising influence of AI. In this section, we spell out what this means for return and risk assumptions for capital markets.

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Expect a Compression of the Return-Risk “Space”

Part II: The Role of Active Investing and Private Assets
 

We think the role of private assets is very much here to stay, in part because of the void they fill in portfolio design, but also because of their expanded role as a source of capital provision to the economy. The structure of capitalist societies is seeing a rebalancing toward private assets that seems entrenched.

Within private assets, we do think that the marginal allocation from here will favor private debt rather than private equity.

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Part III: What is a Benchmark? What is Risk? And What Does This Mean for Strategic Asset Allocation?
 

We consider what all this means for the industry and portfolio allocation. With a more constrained outlook and the potential need to increase risk levels, it is advantageous to think about allocation to asset classes, factors and active returns on the same basis. We offer thoughts on how, in practice, to create an allocation in this way.

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Related Videos

The Future of Benchmarks: Too Much Certainty is a Terrible Thing
 

Benchmarking used by much of the industry should be questioned. Our thesis is that we are in a new regime, with different structural forces compared to those that existed prior to the pandemic.

Productivity, Democracy, Power and Truth: the Influence of AI on Markets
 

Inigo Fraser Jenkins shares his thoughts on the macro impact of artificial intelligence (AI), which raises profound questions about how knowledge is obtained, what we mean by “truth” and what counts as “explanation.”

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A Preliminary Language for a Post-Global World

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We hope this book will prompt debate about what we see as the key issues facing asset allocators and investors, including:

  • Macro Mega-Forces: Demographics, Climate Change and Deglobalization

  • Productivity, Democracy, Power and Truth: The Influence of AI on Markets and Investing

  • The Role of Private Assets in Strategic Asset Allocation: a Macro Perspective

  • A Cut Above: Why Idiosyncratic Alpha is Better than Beating the Benchmark

  • ESG Investing and its Discontents

  • Too Much Certainty is a Terrible Thing: Benchmarking and the Meaning of Risk

  • Strategic Asset Allocation

View the Executive Summary
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