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Economics Inflation Fixed Income Commentary

Global Macro Outlook - First Quarter 2024

17 January 2024
2 min read

What You Need To Know

After two years of aggressive tightening, global central banks pivoted in December. We expect some growth in the coming quarters, albeit subdued compared to history.  With inflation easing, most global economies are off to a good start for the year. Yet, things can, and do, change quickly.

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Key Forecast Trends

  • Growth ran hot for most of 2023; although it’s now slowing, GDP should remain positive for 2024.
  • When combined, a soft economic landing and rate cuts would provide the best of both worlds for financial markets.
  • Disinflation is further along in the euro area than the US, but core inflation there remains well above target for now.
  • China’s policy imperative remains supporting growth and fighting disinflation, and we think they’re equipped to do both. 
  • Ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East could be disruptive, although markets have largely concluded their economic impacts are likely to be limited.
The Global Cycle for 4Q:2023

Global Forecast

Forecast Overview

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