Eric Winograd

After the trade war’s opening salvoes, tensions seem set to last for some time.

The range of potential economic outcomes is wide, but a solid starting point suggests resilience.

We take an early look at how a new policy platform could factor into the US deficit and debt.

The US debt burden has grown substantially, with no easy solution in sight. What's the answer, and what does it mean for investors?

Demand growth is cooling, but evidence suggests that overall fundamentals are still sound.

Earlier interest-rate cuts would come as good news for the US economy.

Lasting fiscal deficits can exact a cost. Here’s how the situation is shaping up for the world’s economies.

Stronger economic growth is allowing the Fed to stay patient. That means a likely delayed start for expected interest-rate cuts.

The Fed poured cold water on a March rate cut, but the underlying message still has rates coming down—by a lot. Waiting for the starting point can be risky for investors.

Falling inflation hasn’t yet translated into good feelings among US consumers. Based on the latest data, that might be changing.

Despite a range of shocks, the global economy stayed resilient throughout 2023. What course will it take in 2024?

The US government has avoided a shutdown, but changing the fiscal trajectory requires tackling a sizable budget deficit, so fiscal policy should remain a friction point for the economy and markets.

China’s growth has slowed, but the context is important—an intentional transition to a more balanced economy that relies less on investment and exports.

A third-quarter bump in consumer spending provided lift for the US, but the world’s economies are still on track for soft landings and mild recessions.

Resilient consumer spending has been a pillar of the US economy. While activity may soften, we think the consumer will help the coming slowdown stay mild.

Despite softening demand, US home prices remain elevated. The culprits are high interest rates, limited supply and owners' reluctance to take on new mortgages.

Recession? Soft Landing? Getting a read on where the US economy is headed hasn’t been easy.

Growth in developed economies has been resilient, thanks to strong labor markets. But with central banks likely to keep interest rates higher for longer, how long can that last?

The Fed and the European Central Bank each raised interest rates by 25 basis points this week. The Fed may be done, but that's not the case in the euro area.

Could debt-ceiling drama create investment opportunities?

Conflicting economic data and volatile markets can reduce visibility. It helps to look beyond the turbulence to the destination.

Yesterday's Fed policy decisions indicate a somewhat optimistic view of the bank turmoil, but policymakers will be keeping a watchful eye on bank liquidity and lending.

Capital markets continue functioning well despite a hawkish US rate turn, but many investors still worry about the risk of a deeper spiral. We think that's an unlikely outcome.

The debate around the US debt ceiling is back again. Our base case is that Congress eventually will increase the debt ceiling, as it always has. But the process will be unusually messy this year.

This year will likely see a shift from extremely high inflation to worries about slumping growth. Conditions should be better than 2022, but the road will be bumpy.

The Fed has indicated smaller rate hikes moving forward, but with inflation raging, investors should be prepared for an extended period of restrictive monetary policy.

Europe faces a difficult policy challenge in battling inflation while trying to relieve households and businesses from the pain of costly natural gas.

The global growth outlook has declined as central banks tackle inflation. What signs would point to an eventual rebound for the economy and markets?

The Fed’s aggressive moves to tackle inflation will likely work over time. The cost will be lower economic growth and volatile markets, as investors digest the changing policy stance.

Subduing inflation takes time. Here's how we expect the process to unfold, and what investors can do to survive it.

Major central banks face the challenge of high inflation and slowing growth-most pronounced in the UK. We expect volatile policymaking as officials try and split the difference.

With inflation more intense and entrenched, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it intends to respond with tighter monetary policy, which the US economy should be able to withstand.

The European Central Bank's surprise decision to accelerate its tapering plan is intended to strike a middle ground. In our view, it also increases the downside risk for the euro-area economy.

With 2022 under way, war in Europe has given investors a sobering reminder that macro risks are ever-present. We assess some of the major storylines investors need to monitor.

A decline in global unemployment rates as the pandemic fades masks a key distinction with the US experience-one with key implications for future growth prospects.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shocked the global economy, in particular by fueling further spikes in energy and commodity prices. How will these inflationary catalysts affect monetary policy in different regions?

AB's Director of Developed Market Research provides a detailed economic view of what's driving inflation today and what to expect in the future.

The Bank of England is behind the inflation curve. With its recent actions, it's trying to avoid the need to take more drastic measures later.

The Fed didn't do anything unexpected at its January policy meeting, but its hawkish rhetoric signaled that monetary policy will look very different over the next few months.

Now that COVID-related threats to the global economy look to be receding, the risks from higher inflation are becoming more prominent.

The Fed announced accelerated plans to taper asset purchases and hike short-term interest rates. Markets weren't particularly surprised, but it's a major policy adjustment for the central bank.

Inflation is hotter than expected, thanks to robust demand paired with a snarled supply-chain. How long will it take to straighten out the supply-chain?

The Federal Reserve kicks off its taper of US asset purchases later this month. But there’s a meaningful gap between the market’s inflation anxiety and the Fed’s wait-and-see approach to what it still views as a transitory challenge.

Major central banks seem ready to head back toward normal policy settings, given the economic rebound from the pandemic and an accompanying inflation surge. Global financial markets may be choppier as a result, but monetary policy will remain accommodative for some time-and the underlying growth outlook is strong.

Headline inflation is at a decade-high rate of increase, and core inflation of 4.0% is higher than it's been in over 25 years. But the economy is well on the road to recovery, and GDP growth is back to where it was pre-crisis. While we expect the Fed to taper in November, we think investor focus should be more on when the Fed ends quantitative easing rather than when they start tapering.

Could national currencies go digital? No, they wouldn’t be cryptocurrencies, but the Fed and other monetary policymakers are testing the waters of augmenting traditional currencies with digital versions. Who’s in the lead, and what challenges are central bankers working through?

Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chair Jay Powell’s term expires in February, and both vice chairs face expiring tenures, too. With another seat already open, how will the Biden administration balance the desire for monetary policy continuity with a wish list that includes tighter bank regulation?

Many investors are trying to project the moving parts of the coming Federal Reserve taper, which we expect to be announced in the fourth quarter. There are key questions still to be answered: What mix of securities? How fast? What comes next? We lay out our best assessment.

The macroeconomic picture suggests the recent uptick in US inflation is temporary. But is it? We dig into the micro data that makes the case.

Investors have begun to speculate about when the Fed will start tapering its quantitative easing (QE) asset purchases—we think later this year. But officials have learned from their past mistakes and will likely take steps to avoid a repeat of 2013’s “taper tantrum.”

Some market analysts are worried that proposed tax hikes on corporations could dampen business investment and economic growth. Based on the experience of the 2017 corporate tax cut, we think the bigger impact will likely fall on share buybacks—not economic activity.

We expect US core inflation to surge in the months ahead, as comparisons to low price levels of a year ago cause sizable fluctuations. Ultimately, supply should respond to recovering demand, bringing inflation down and enabling continued easy Fed policy.

US Treasury yields have surged, buoyed by optimism about economic growth and rising inflation expectations. We think the Fed will push against rates rising too far, too fast.

The probability of more fiscal relief from Congress has risen-good news for the US economy and a boost to our growth forecast. While risks remain, and it's too early to talk about the pandemic in the past tense, we're optimistic the economy can return to more normal footing soon.

With a greater level of clarity than we've had since the COVID-19 pandemic, we're getting a better sense of how the US economy might shape up over the next few months, into 2022 and beyond. We see three distinct stages over that time frame.

Two recent developments could have big implications for the US economic outlook: general elections and news of very promising progress on a COVID-19 vaccine. To understand the ramifications, we have to distinguish near term from longer term.

US third quarter GDP was better than expected, though our updated economic forecasts still show a quick but incomplete recovery. Over time, this should give way to a more gradual, lengthy path back to "normal." But there are a lot of moving parts.

With US elections about two months away, investors are intensifying their focus on the presidential and congressional contests. Historically, political transitions haven't had much impact on the economy and markets, but this time could be different.

The Fed gave its updated economic outlook this week, but not the additional policy support markets were looking for. We think this was a misstep...but one we hope will be corrected if the outlook doesn't improve.

The Fed continues to dismiss the idea of negative US rates but the market keeps pricing them in. We don't expect negative rates: in our view, the market is using them as a proxy for Fed measures that may be needed but aren't yet identified.

The onslaught of the coronavirus forced the Federal Reserve and lawmakers to take desperately needed measures. The US economy will eventually recover, but the effects of these drastic policy decisions will be felt for a long time.

The decline in US economic activity from social distancing measures and forced shutdowns is likely to be bigger than our initial guess. While we expect a recovery once the coronavirus crisis eases, we don’t have enough information yet to dimension it.

The historic US fiscal aid package isn't a quick fix, but it provides welcome relief and will make it easier for the US economy to rebound when the coronavirus crisis eases. More important, it shows that Congress is willing to act swiftly and dynamically.

Conventional wisdom says the Fed is pretty much out of tools to support markets and an economy derailed by the coronavirus. But if things don’t stabilize soon or if the fiscal response is too slow, we expect the Fed to take on broad fiscal-like authority to funnel liquidity into struggling businesses and households.

With markets reeling from concerns over the coronavirus and plummeting oil prices, the US Federal Reserve took another step Monday to shore up markets. The Fed has more in its toolbox, but fiscal policy may also be needed to fill a gap in the US economy.

Expecting the unexpected? Our Co-Head of Fixed Income and our US economist discuss bond strategies for volatile times.

This week’s Fed rate cut helped steady financial markets reeling from the expected impact of the coronavirus on the US economy, and we think more cuts are coming—in March and beyond. The economy should rebound in the second half of the year, though at a lower full-year pace.

Is the impact of global monetary stimulus waning? Our Co-Head of Fixed Income and our US economist discuss whether fiscal stimulus will pick up the slack.

The Fed balance sheet is back. Our Co-Head of Fixed Income and our US economist discuss what recent stimulus means to the economy and markets.

The US and China formally signed a phase-one trade deal Wednesday after several months of negotiations. We see the deal as a near-term positive for markets—but it also leaves the thorniest issues between the two countries unresolved.

The US Fed held rates steady in December and plans to continue that stance through 2020. But a lot can happen to change the Fed’s mind—after all, it entered 2019 expecting to hike rates and ended up with three cuts. What does 2020 have in store?

The Fed has signaled it is unlikely to cut interest rates again in December, but we expect further rate cuts next year. We believe the Fed has not yet done enough to protect the economy against headwinds. While we don't forecast a US recession, we think additional monetary policy easing will be needed to stabilize growth.

The Fed cut rates again and indicated that one more cut should be enough to shore up growth. We think more will be needed. But will rate cuts work? And if not, what else can the Fed do?

With the global economy facing stronger headwinds, we've reduced our global growth and interest-rate expectations. But the US Federal Reserve has a variety of policy tools it could use—some unconventional—that we think will help the US economy hold up better than some of its peers.

Financial markets are focused on the ongoing trade war between the US and China—which goods and services are in play and what measures are being taken or threatened in each case. But the trade conflict could spill over into currency markets—and that's a risk that bears watching.

The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged this week, but also signaled a very high probability of cuts later this year. Historically, rate cuts have been a sign of trouble—typically made in response to slower growth and rising unemployment. But this time around, growth data aren't showing much weakness. What's the story?

The trade war has taken a harsher turn, threatening to further dampen economic growth. We expect the Fed to respond with sizable rate cuts, but the timing and amounts are more speculative than normal. Why? Economic data haven't yet taken a major downward turn, and there's uncertainty over how the Fed will react.

The US central bank recently said it would not shrink its balance sheet by as much as many investors had feared. Here's why—and why it matters.

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has moved from the fringe to broader public discussion recently, fueling concern from some investors about growing debt levels. We don't expect MMT to replace our current economic structure, but its populist-inspired underpinnings will likely have a sizable influence on policy.

US inflation has been running low for some time, and key members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) are pointing a finger at the traditional policy framework. So rate hikes are on hold for the time being—and monetary policy is under the microscope.

Last week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised even those who expected a dovish outcome. As the Fed wrangles with its policy framework, one takeaway is clear: don't expect rate hikes this year—and possibly next.

A generation ago, China had little influence beyond its borders. Today, its importance to the world economy rivals the United States'. China's role in markets is growing, too: in April, it will join a major global bond index. The future may bring a freely traded Chinese yuan and a challenge to the US dollar.

Is the technological revolution making us more productive? Are we measuring productivity properly? And what does it all mean for monetary policy and countries’ growth potential?

Populist, anti-establishment policies will be with us for a while because the conditions that inspire them, such as rising inequality and stagnant incomes, will, too. That has long-term implications for inflation and global growth that investors cannot ignore.

Countries and companies have been on a borrowing binge even as the growth of the working-age population in many parts of the world slows. Is a prolonged period of low growth and low inflation in our future?

The government shutdown and temporary displacement of some workers didn't cause the strong US labor market to miss a beat. Today's jobs report reinforces that gains have been accelerating. That's good news for the economy and markets.

The magnitude of recent market reactions to the Fed's comments makes it clear that communication between the Fed and markets isn't working: the market is too focused on the Fed-and not enough on the economy. One solution? The Fed should stop giving forward guidance about rates-and eliminate the "dot plot"

The US government shutdown is almost four weeks old, and there's no sign that the standoff will be resolved anytime soon. How much has the shutdown impacted—and how much will it impact—economic growth? That depends on how long it lasts.

As expected, the Fed hiked interest rates yesterday, but we now think there will be fewer hikes in 2019 than we previously called for. Not because the US economy is in trouble, but because the Fed is changing its approach to setting policy.

A rapid rise in US interest rates has put financial markets on the defensive lately. Will the Federal Reserve respond by slowing the pace of its tightening campaign? Don't bet on it.

What might the US midterm election results mean for fiscal policy and financial markets? Probably not much if Democrats and Republicans end up splitting control of Congress. But a sweep by either party could lead to very different outcomes.

When it comes to the official US short-term interest rate, the Federal Reserve now appears to be on autopilot, with three more quarter-percentage-point increases likely by mid-2019. But after that, things should get more complicated.

Aluminum. Cars. Solar panels. It's hard to track the tariffs without a scorecard. As headlines continue to swirl, many investors worry about the impact on the US economy. Clearly, tariffs and trade wars hurt growth, but we don't think the impact will be big enough to derail the economy just yet.

The US Federal Reserve decided against an official short-term rate hike at this week's meeting-hardly a surprise. But US Treasury yields continue to climb in 2018, and not all the explanations are good news.

Steel and aluminum tariffs aren't a big deal for the US economy. But they may be for US trading partners and global growth. Focus on the trade shortfall also obscures a bigger concern: the US fiscal deficit.

There's not much suspense around this week's Fed meeting: the fed funds target rate is almost certain to rise by 25 basis points. We think it's more important not to overlook this cycle's endgame.

Market volatility has spiked recently, driven largely by growing concerns about rising inflation and interest rates. We think the volatility is exaggerated, but we're not surprised inflation is rising-and rates along with it.

The tremors that have battered financial markets recently have been nerve-wracking. But remember, the market is not the economy. Economic growth can persist even when markets decline, and that growth can eventually help to stop the slide.

As 2018 gets rolling, markets don't have great expectations for Fed interest-rate hikes. Based on futures pricing, roughly two small increases are anticipated this year. We think there will be more.

With the US economy humming and the Fed seemingly pushing all the right buttons, it makes sense to expect more of the same in 2018. That means more rate hikes on the way. The question is: How many?

Jerome Powell, President Trump's pick to lead the Federal Reserve, is likely to continue the central bank's gradual retreat from unconventional policy. But the test for a Powell-led Fed will come when the economic cycle turns.