Global Macro Outlook: Third Quarter 2024

03 July 2024

1 min read

What You Need To Know

There’s more evidence that growth is slowing, but it appears manageable and unlikely to lead to recession. While rate cuts have begun outside the US, we expect the Fed to follow suit by December. Political developments, especially the election cycle, are now coming into frame.

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Key Forecast Trends

The global economy moved along as expected, with some slowing but not enough to trigger recession.
We view the slowing as positive, contributing to disinflation and bringing economies back into balance.
Rate cuts have begun in key markets, with US easing now expected to begin in December.
Coming elections could weigh on markets, but the global economy remains in relatively good shape.
Growth stabilized in China, easing market concerns, but further improvement from here will rely on effective policy.
We continue to expect a soft landing, as price pressures ease in more regions.

Global Macro Outlook: The Next Six Months

Global Forecast

Forecast Overview

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