Is Your Target-Date Fund Providing Enough Inflation Protection?

30 July 2021

4 min read

Christopher Nikolich| Head of Glide Path Strategies (US)—Multi-Asset Solutions

Vinod Chathlani| Portfolio Manager and Researcher—Multi-Asset and Hedge Funds Solutions

Elena Wang| Portfolio Manager—Multi-Asset Solutions

Inflation has been on the rise recently, raising concerns about long-run inflation and its impact on the spending power of those who can least afford it—investors approaching or already in retirement. Target-date funds, owned by many defined contribution (DC) plan participants, are designed to simplify investment decisions and reduce principal risk as investors edge toward retirement.

But will target-date funds really help participants retain their spending power in inflationary times? There are strategies to help retirement portfolios guard against inflation, and they’re more critical today than ever before—but with inflation dormant for so many years, not every target-date fund is similarly equipped to be an inflation fighter.

Is Inflation Really a Threat? A Closer Look

It’s been years since investors have needed to incorporate inflation in their investment plans. But as the global economy climbs its way out of the pandemic-induced recession, the demand for goods and services is increasing faster than supply. Prices are rising, and inflation is real—particularly in the US.

Today’s inflation spike is transitory, in our opinion: supply and demand will eventually come into balance as supply chains are unkinked. But, over the longer-term, structural factors and policy regimes may push inflation higher than it’s been in recent experience.

Investors nearing retirement today were children or young adults the last time inflation was a major concern. While we don’t believe this bout of inflation will be anything like the 1970s, that era does provide a good illustration of inflation’s pain. Between 1972 and 1982, inflation averaged 9%, inflicting a 30% inflation-adjusted loss on a classic 60/40 portfolio. What if an investor was retired and also spending 4% of portfolio assets per year during this time? The portfolio value in real terms would have dropped by 65% (Display).

Inflation: Difficult to Predict, Harmful when It Hits

The returns of a 60/40 portfolio during three inflationary periods. In 1970s, the return was -65% after 4% spending.

Historical analysis and forecasts do not guarantee future results. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
*Real returns displayed are cumulative returns. This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any AB product. An investor cannot invest directly in an index or average, and they do not include sales charges or operating expenses associated with an investment in a mutual fund, which would reduce total returns. Assumes a 60/40 stock/bond allocation, with 4% annual spending rate on initial portfolio value (spending grown with inflation). Inflation is represented by the respective inflation indices of the US, the UK and Japan. Stocks in the US are represented by the S&P 500 Index, in the UK by the FTSE All-Share Index and in Japan by the Nikko Securities Composite. Bonds are represented by the 10-year government bond indices of the US, the UK and Japan.
As of June 30, 2021
Source: FTSE, Global Financial Data (GFD), Philadelphia Federal Reserve, SMBC Nikko Securities, S&P, US Bureau of Labor Statistics and AllianceBernstein (AB)

Of course, inflation doesn’t have to be 1970s-style to jeopardize a retirement plan. Inflation spikes might not often happen, but they can be particularly detrimental for retirees who are drawing on their assets. In the short run, pent-up consumer demand, combined with supply friction, should keep inflation higher than normal. Even as supply lines are restored, fiscal and monetary policy will continue to flow into the real economy.

The longer-term outlook for prices will be greatly influenced, in our view, by structural factors such as demographics, technological progress and populism, not to mention the policy regime itself. When combined, these factors will likely increase the probability of higher inflation in the future. How target-date funds are equipped to handle it is an all-important consideration for DC plans.

What Does It Take to Protect a Portfolio from Inflation?

Some target-date funds have tried to solve for inflation by including Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in their bond allocations. While TIPS can offer some relief from price hikes, they have a downside, too. Investors give up income when TIPS are substituted for bonds—TIPS yields are almost always lower than those of comparable Treasury bonds. So, while an allocation to TIPS can make sense, they won’t provide enough protection on their own when inflation strikes.

Most target-date funds rely primarily on TIPS, counting on a combination of TIPS and equity exposure, which can have inflation-fighting capability. We believe that target-date funds can—and should—do better. There’s no silver bullet to slay inflation—no single asset is a perfect weapon—but we believe that a diversified mix of growth-oriented and inflation-sensitive assets can provide an answer to the inflation problem.

Target-date funds that include a blended bundle of inflation-sensitive real assets in their portfolios— such as commodities, real estate, natural resource stocks and infrastructure—have fared much better than a traditional 60/40 portfolio, or even a 60/40 portfolio that includes TIPS during this year’s inflation run up (Display).

Real Assets Protect Portfolios During Inflationary Periods

Year-to-Date Performance Through June 30, 2021

YTD returns for a 60/40 portfolio, a 60/40 portfolio with TIPS, and 60/40 with TIPS and real assets: 6.7%, 7.1% and 8.1% each

Past performance does not guarantee future results. These returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect the performance of any fund. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of loss. Historical analysis is not a guarantee of future results.
This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any AB product. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index.
Traditional 60/40: 60% stocks, 40% bonds; 60/40 portfolio with real bonds: 60% stocks, 30% diversified bonds, 10% real bonds; 60/40 with real bonds and real assets: 45% stocks, 15% real assets, 30% diversified bonds, 10% inflation linked bonds
Diversified stocks: MSCI World Index; bonds: BloombergBarclays US Aggregate Bond Index; real bonds: BloombergBarclays US Govt Inflation Linked 1–-10 Year Index; real assets: 30% commodity futures, 20% natural resource equities, 30% real estate stocks, 20% MSCI world with CPI swap overlay
Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, FTSE, GFD, GSCI, HSBC, Kenneth R. French, OECD, S&P and AB

The allocation to real assets marginally decreases the equity exposure; if inflation is muted or absent, that lower equity exposure can cause performance to lag. But we think forgoing some upside to protect retirement savings from the potential devastation of inflation is a sensible choice. The difference real assets can make in a portfolio performance during inflation is striking.

Inflation-Sensitive Assets Aren’t One Size Fits All

Of course, investors’ needs change as they move toward retirement, and the mix of inflation-fighting assets should evolve to address these needs. The risk, return and inflation-sensitivity of real assets vary, so the mixture should change as investors get closer to retirement.

For younger investors, the allocation to inflation-sensitive assets is more about diversification, because their equity exposure should outpace inflation over very long horizons. Investors approaching or in retirement, in contrast, need more defense against inflation. Their inflation protection should not only be a bigger portion of their portfolio but also increasingly focused on assets most responsive to inflation.

Within target-date funds, managers should be making these types of adjustments, but many don’t. Some funds may include a token allocation to TIPS or hold a smattering of real assets, but few go far enough, in our opinion. We think inflation fighting deserves a more thoughtful approach tailored to an investor’s position in their lifecycle.

As inflation comes back into the retirement savings conversation, DC plan sponsors should take a close look at their target-date funds to ensure they have the most effective tools to keep the ravages of inflation at bay. If inflation risk hasn’t been a focus in 2021, it’s probably exacted a toll on performance.

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams.

About the Authors

Christopher Nikolich

Christopher Nikolich joined AB in 1994 and is the Head of Glide Path Strategies (US) in the Multi-Asset Solutions business, leading research efforts relating to effective target-date and lifetime income fund construction. He is an author of defined contribution–related research, such as Designing the Future of Target-Date Funds: A New Blueprint for Improving Retirement Outcomes and Leveling the Retirement Income Playing Field: A Comprehensive Framework for Evaluating Diverse Lifetime Income Solutions. In addition, Nikolich has authored thought leadership focused on a variety of topics, such as plan design, asset allocation and inflation. He works closely with clients in the structuring of their customized target-date and lifetime income funds. From 2002 to 2008, Nikolich worked in both New York and London as a senior portfolio manager on the Blend Strategies team, collaborating with clients on the creation and implementation of multi-asset class solutions. From 1996 to 2002, he was a portfolio manager in the Index Strategies Group, where he managed risk-controlled equity services. Nikolich holds a BA in finance from Rider University, an MBA in finance from New York University. He is a member of the Board of Trustees of Rider University, the Vice Chair of Rider University’s Investment Subcommittee and is a former member of the Executive Committee of the Defined Contribution Institutional Investment Association (DCIIA). Location: New York

Vinod Chathlani

Vinod Chathlani is a Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager and Researcher on the Multi-Asset and Hedge Funds Solutions team. In this role, he is responsible for designing, constructing and managing investment strategies that are focused on risk mitigation, inflation and energy transition. Chathlani joined AB in 2013 as a quantitative researcher and assistant portfolio manager on the Dynamic Asset Allocation team, where he helped research and develop quantitative tools and systematic macro strategies. Prior to that, Chathlani held roles in investment risk and corporate strategy. He holds a BTech in information technology from the University of Madras, India; an MFE from the University of California, Los Angeles; and an MBA from the Indian School of Business, India. Location: New York

Elena Wang

Elena Wang is a Vice President and Portfolio Manager on the Multi-Asset Solutions team. She joined AB in 2016 as part of the Defined Contribution Research and Investment team. Wang was previously an investment analyst at AIG Asset Management, where she worked directly with the CIO’s office on managing various multi-asset portfolios. Prior to that, Wang was a quantitative analyst at Chatham Financial. She holds a BS in applied mathematics from the University of Toronto and an MS in computational finance from the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon University. Location: New York

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Is Your Target-Date Fund Providing Enough Inflation Protection?

Is Inflation Really a Threat? A Closer Look

What Does It Take to Protect a Portfolio from Inflation?

Inflation-Sensitive Assets Aren’t One Size Fits All

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