Terms and Conditions

Please read these conditions carefully before using this site. By using this site, you signify your assent to the following terms and conditions of use without limitation or qualification. In particular, you consent to the use of all cookies on this website for the purposes described in the terms of use. If you do not agree to these terms or to the use of cookies as described below, do not use this site. AllianceBernstein may at any time revise these terms of use. You are bound by any such revisions and should therefore periodically visit this page to review the then current terms of use to which you are bound. This site is for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security which may be referenced herein.

Terms Of Use

This site is solely intended for use by professional/institutional investors and institutional-investment industry consultants.

Do you wish to continue?

 

Fixed Income

Bracing Your Portfolio for Tough Conditions in 2020

10 January 2020
3 min read

What You Need to Know

Bond yields are low, geopolitical risk is rising and the economic outlook is uncertain. This could create some challenges for investors who rely on their fixed-income allocation to provide income, returns, stability and diversification against equity risk. But we think investors can still fortify their fixed-income allocations in a way that increases return potential without an excessive increase in risk.

$12 tril
Value of outstanding negative-yielding bonds
24,000
Number of bonds in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index
2.4%
Our forecast for 2020 global growth.
Authors
Monika Carlson| Managing Director, Senior Investment Strategist and Head—Income and Systematic Fixed Income Business Development
Scott DiMaggio, CFA| Head—Fixed Income
Gershon M. Distenfeld, CFA | Director—Income Strategies

The global economy is facing numerous challenges. A trade war between the US and China has hurt global trade, causing business confidence to falter and manufacturing output to decline. A recent trade truce is welcome, but it's unclear if it will last. And trade hostility is just one example of the geopolitical risks and the drift toward populist policies that have cast a cloud over markets.

It's not all doom and gloom, though. Developed-market consumers continue to spend and labor markets—particularly in the US—remain healthy. That's already prevented the manufacturing downturn from turning into a broader and more damaging economic slowdown and provides scope for optimism so long as weakness in manufacturing can be arrested, as now looks more likely.

But economic and political risks, including those tied to the 2020 US presidential election, remain high. In other words, we think it would be premature to declare that the economy has turned a corner. We expect global economic growth to slow to 2.4% in 2020. That's better than we expected a couple of months ago but would still represent one of the weakest performances since the global financial crisis. And the risks are probably still skewed to the downside. So while recent developments have been encouraging, the outlook for the economy—and investors—remains highly uncertain.

Raising Yields, Reducing Volatility

Here's what does seem certain: bond yields are likely to stay low for some time to come, while market volatility should remain high. So how can institutions boost income in today's low-yielding, late-cycle world without taking on too much risk?

To start with, we think US dollar-based investors should globalize their safety-oriented core fixed-income strategies—but hedge the currency exposure.

There are more than 24,000 bonds in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index, and varying business cycles, monetary cycles and yield curves around the world mean country-bond returns differ from year to year. Investors who stick to their domestic markets are leaving a lot of opportunity on the table—even in today's low-yield environment. And because US interest rates are higher than those in other developed economies, hedging a euro- or yen-denominated bond back to dollars can raise yields considerably (Display).

Currency Hedging Can Make Low-Yield Bonds More Attractive
Currency Hedging Can Make Low-Yield Bonds More Attractive

As of December 31, 2019
Past performance and historical and current analysis do not guarantee future results.
Hedge: A hedge is an investment to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in an asset, such as taking an offsetting position in a related security.
Source: Bloomberg Barclays and AllianceBernstein (AB)

How to Increase Income Potential

A well-designed global core strategy can help to boost income potential without requiring investors to assume undue risk. But it isn’t enough. While many credit sectors, particularly in the US, are in the later stage of the cycle, abandoning return-seeking assets entirely isn’t a viable option. At this stage in the cycle, it makes sense to focus on credit sectors exposed to the healthiest parts of the world economy, such as US consumer or banking.

Investors may want to consider stand-alone allocations to relatively new or overlooked sectors that offer an appealing mix of yield, quality and downside protection potential. Two that we find attractive are US securitized assets backed by commercial and residential mortgages and subordinated European bank debt.

Past performance, historical and current analyses, and expectations do not guarantee future results. There can be no assurance that any investment objectives will be achieved. The information contained here reflects the views of AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates and sources it believes are reliable as of the date of this publication. AllianceBernstein L.P. makes no representations or warranties concerning the accuracy of any data. There is no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this material will be realized. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed here may change at any time after the date of this publication. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. AllianceBernstein L.P. does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. It does not take an investor’s personal investment objectives or financial situation into account; investors should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument, product or service sponsored by AB or its affiliates.

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice, or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams.

MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations, and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, reviewed or produced by MSCI.


About the Authors

Monika Carlson is a Managing Director, Senior Investment Strategist, and Head of the Income and Systematic platforms for the Fixed Income Business Development team. She is responsible for leading a team of investment strategists and product managers and for driving growth efforts on AB’s fixed-income platform. Additionally, as part of her client-facing role, Carlson represents AB’s market views and portfolio strategies to clients, prospects and consultants globally. She has held several roles at AB, including as the head of the Global Offshore Retail Platform in Product Management. Prior to joining AB in 2007, Carlson worked at Neuberger Berman. She holds a BBA in finance from Baruch College at the City University of New York and is a CFA charterholder. Location: New York

Scott DiMaggio is a Senior Vice President, Head of Fixed Income and a member of the Operating Committee. As Head of Fixed Income, he is responsible for the management and strategic growth of AB’s fixed-income business and investment decisions across the department. DiMaggio has previously served as director of Global Fixed Income and continues to be a portfolio manager across numerous multi-sector and multi-currency strategies. Prior to joining AB’s Fixed Income portfolio-management team, he performed quantitative investment analysis, including asset-liability, asset-allocation, return attribution and risk analysis for the firm. Before joining the firm in 1999, DiMaggio was a risk management market analyst at Santander Investment Securities. He also held positions as a senior consultant at Ernst & Young and Andersen Consulting. DiMaggio holds a BS in business administration from the State University of New York, Albany, and an MS in finance from Baruch College. He is a member of the Global Association of Risk Professionals and a CFA charterholder. Location: New York

Gershon Distenfeld is a Senior Vice President, Director of Income Strategies and a member of the firm’s Operating Committee. He is responsible for the portfolio management and strategic growth of AB’s income platform with almost $60B in assets under management. This includes the multiple-award-winning Global High Yield and American Income portfolios, flagship fixed-income funds on the firm’s Luxembourg-domiciled fund platform for non-US investors. Distenfeld also oversees AB’s public leveraged finance business. He joined AB in 1998 as a fixed-income business analyst and served in the following roles: high-yield trader (1999–2002), high-yield portfolio manager (2002–2006), director of High Yield (2006–2015), director of Credit (2015–2018) and co-head of Fixed Income (2018–2023). Distenfeld began his career as an operations analyst supporting Emerging Markets Debt at Lehman Brothers. He holds a BS in finance from the Sy Syms School of Business at Yeshiva University and is a CFA charterholder. Location: Nashville