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Q3 2024

Capital Markets Outlook

November 2024

 

 

 

 

Highlights

Macro
  • The global economy Is likely to slow but should avoid major disruptions.

  • In Europe, downside risks to inflation and growth have increased, pointing to a more front-loaded cutting cycle.
Rates
  • Global central banks have started the easing cycles but rates still expected to be “higher for longer” relative to history.
Credit
  • Strong backdrop for Investment-Grade Credit.
Emerging-Market Debt (EMD)
  • We see select opportunities in EM corporates.
Equity
  • Despite burst of volatility, equities ended the quarter higher.

  • Earnings growth expectations are improving outside of the US.
 
  1. Rates
  2. Credit
  3. EMD
  4. Equity

Macro

The Global Economy Is Likely to Slow but Should Avoid Major Disruptions

We Expect a Soft Landing for the Global Economy
GDP forecast (percent)

As of September 30, 2024
Source: Bloomberg, IMF and AB

Disinflation Should Continue
AB inflation forecasts (percent)

As of September 30, 2024
Source: Bloomberg, IMF and AB

What Are We Watching?
 

Key Upside Risks

  • Global labor markets remain strong; if the recent weakening is limited, growth may not slow much
  • Rapid rate cuts could boost financial markets, easing financial conditions

Key Downside Risks

  • Slower growth could spiral; monetary policy works with a lag, and rate cuts may be too slow or too small
  • Geopolitical risk continues to escalate

 

Current analysis and forecasts do not guarantee future results.
DM: developed market; EM: emerging market. Growth and inflation forecasts are calendar-year averages, except US GDP, which is forecast as 4Q/4Q.
*International Monetary Fund (IMF) global forecast as of October 22, 2024

Investment involves risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This website has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission. The issuer of this website is AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited (聯博香港有限公司).

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