How Target-Date Funds Can Use Equities for Stability

June 16, 2020

3 min read

Christopher Nikolich| Head of Glide Path Strategies (US)—Multi-Asset Solutions

Christopher W. Marx| Global Head—Equity Business Development

Target-date funds (TDFs) typically reduce downside risk by lowering exposure to equities under normal conditions. But recent turbulence has demonstrated that a selective use of defensive equities can help reduce volatility through especially challenging market conditions.

For most TDFs, glide paths routinely shift allocations from equities to bonds to preserve assets near retirement. However, market uncertainty from the coronavirus crisis has been far from routine. Just reducing equity levels still exposes investors to short-term losses beyond what they can stand—and for many at a critical point in their time horizon.

On the other hand, TDFs that selectively use defensive equities—companies with stable earnings and higher-quality cash flows in any environment—are better positioned to provide both return potential and protection from market turbulence. During the two most recent periods of volatility, for example, defensive equities offered substantial risk reduction relative to the broader market (Display).

Defensive Equities Have Helped in Times of Market Stress

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Returns represent diversifiers selected for use in AB packaged target-date products, are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect the performance of any target-date fund. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of loss.
Global equities are represented by MSCI All Country World Index Net Returns (USD)
Defensive equities are represented by MSCI World Minimum Volatility Net Returns (USD) USD
As of March 31, 2020. Source: Morningstar Direct, MSCI and AllianceBernstein (AB)

A Glide Path Within a Glide Path to Manage Risk

A target-date strategy’s current allocations are based on the time left on its built-in clock. Current holdings for a fund with a 2020 target date will look very different from one built for 2050. But all glide paths almost always start with a higher risk profile than when they finish, with gradual adjustments from aggressive to moderate to conservative along the way. That’s because most investors have a higher risk tolerance when they’re younger and don’t need the assets any time soon. Closer to retirement, investors can’t afford to take a big hit.

Adding more types of equities at this point might sound counterintuitive to some investors, since they’re generally perceived as a riskier asset class. But some high-quality equities can boost stability, often with less downside than the broader market.

Protecting Retirees at a Critical Juncture

The freedom to use a broader menu of diversifying asset classes brings a target-date strategy to a higher level of protection and growth potential anywhere on the glide path’s timeline. The true test, however, comes at retirement.

When a TDF’s glide path is nearing its end, defending against market uncertainty is especially urgent. At this moment, investors—approaching or at retirement—are most vulnerable because a hit to fund assets could negatively impact income for the rest of their lives.

Conversely, as people are living longer, many will need income to last 20 or more years after they leave their jobs. So the glide path must continue to deliver returns to reduce longevity risk—the risk of running out of money in a longer retirement period. That means the equity asset mix should balance growth potential with a sharp focus on buffering asset values from sudden downturns, extending its volatility protection well into the retirement years (Display).

Glide Paths Using Defensive Equities Can Reduce Sensitivity to Market Risk Retirement

High-Growth equity includes small-/mid-cap equity and emerging-market equity.
Volatility is based on historical simulated monthly returns of the equity sleeve from January 1999 to May 2020. The allocation is based on the equity portion of AB Multi-Manager Retirement Trusts. Performance of underlying strategies is represented by monthly returns of asset-class benchmarks: US large-cap is Russell 1000 Index; US small-and mid-cap by Russell 2500 index; international developed by MSCI EAFE Index; emerging market by MSCI Emerging Market Index; defensive by MSCI World Minimum Volatility Index. The simulated portfolio is rebalanced monthly, without fees or transaction costs.
As of May 31, 2020. Source: MSCI, Russell Investments and AllianceBernstein (AB)

Striking a Balance Between Growth and Risk Control

A truly effective target-date strategy should provide both protection and some growth potential for a lifetime, which is especially critical in today’s low-interest-rate world. More than ever, retirees want equity components to help maximize return, but without the higher added risk of traditional stocks. Here too, the lower risk characteristics of defensive equities, coupled with other diversifiers, can help reduce volatility yet maintain the upside potential investors need.

After a decade of steady, upward market-based growth, millions of retirement plan balances took major blows during the coronavirus panic. Including defensive equities in a TDF would have helped reduce the pain during the downturn, while making it easier to recoup losses in the subsequent recovery.

While all retirement strategies come with risk, some are better equipped to deal with it more effectively. We believe target-date strategies whose glide paths can actively draw from a wider selection of defensive equities are in an ideal position to respond to investors’ changing needs and to better protect their investment from market turmoil.

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations, and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams and are subject to change over time.

About the Authors

Christopher Nikolich

Christopher Nikolich joined AB in 1994 and is the Head of Glide Path Strategies (US) in the Multi-Asset Solutions business, leading research efforts relating to effective target-date and lifetime income fund construction. He is an author of defined contribution–related research, such as Designing the Future of Target-Date Funds: A New Blueprint for Improving Retirement Outcomes and Leveling the Retirement Income Playing Field: A Comprehensive Framework for Evaluating Diverse Lifetime Income Solutions. In addition, Nikolich has authored thought leadership focused on a variety of topics, such as plan design, asset allocation and inflation. He works closely with clients in the structuring of their customized target-date and lifetime income funds. From 2002 to 2008, Nikolich worked in both New York and London as a senior portfolio manager on the Blend Strategies team, collaborating with clients on the creation and implementation of multi-asset class solutions. From 1996 to 2002, he was a portfolio manager in the Index Strategies Group, where he managed risk-controlled equity services. Nikolich holds a BA in finance from Rider University, an MBA in finance from New York University. He is a member of the Board of Trustees of Rider University, the Vice Chair of Rider University’s Investment Subcommittee and is a former member of the Executive Committee of the Defined Contribution Institutional Investment Association (DCIIA). Location: New York

Christopher W. Marx

Christopher W. Marx is Senior Vice President and Global Head of Equity Business Development. He is responsible for overseeing the firm's team of equity investment strategists and product managers, setting strategic priorities and goals for the global Equities business, developing new products, and engaging with clients to represent market views and investment strategies of the firm. Previously, Marx was a senior investment strategist and a portfolio manager of Equities, and in 2011 he cofounded the Global, International and US Strategic Core Equity portfolios with Kent Hargis. He joined the firm in 1997 as a research analyst covering a variety of industries both domestically and internationally, including chemicals, metals, retail and consumer staples. Marx became part of the portfolio-management team in 2004. Prior to joining the firm, he spent six years as a consultant for Deloitte & Touche and Boston Consulting Group. Marx holds a BA in economics from Harvard University and an MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business. Location: New York

How Target-Date Funds Can Use Equities for Stability

A Glide Path Within a Glide Path to Manage Risk

Protecting Retirees at a Critical Juncture

Striking a Balance Between Growth and Risk Control

More For You