Income Rising Rates Volatility Fixed Income Blog

Three Reasons It’s Time to Add High-Yield Bonds

14 July 2022
5 min read
A mountain climber scales a cliff with views of three mountain peaks in the distance.
Will Smith, CFA| Director—US High Yield
Gershon M. Distenfeld, CFA | Director—Income Strategies

With central banks tightening aggressively to beat down inflation, growth is beginning to slow—and the risk of recession is ticking higher. Historically, creditworthiness has soured when growth slows. But instead of bracing for a wave of downgrades and defaults, we think income-seeking investors should embrace the high-yield corporate bond sector.

Below are three reasons high-yield bonds look attractive—and one reason to seize the day.

Reason 1: Strong long-term fundamentals.

When credit conditions tighten and demand slows, corporations can struggle to secure cheap and adequate funding. That struggle is a function of a company’s creditworthiness at the start of the slowdown: A company that’s already overstretched will run into problems very quickly when the spigot dries up.

At the brink of most slowdowns, corporate fundamentals are typically already weak. But today’s high-yield bond issuers are in much better shape financially than issuers entering past recessions, thanks in part to an extended period of uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic.

This uncertainty led companies to manage their balance sheets and liquidity conservatively over the past two years, even as profitability recovered. As a result, leverage and coverage ratios, margins, and free cash flow have improved. This relative strength in balance sheets means corporate issuers can withstand more pressure as growth and demand slow.

Prudent fiscal management isn’t the only reason the corporate universe is well positioned to weather a storm. The default cycle trigged by the pandemic—with defaults peaking at 6.3% in October 2020—effectively cleaned up the sector. The weakest companies at the time went ahead and defaulted and are now no longer part of the investable universe. The surviving companies were the strong ones.

That was less than two years ago, and since then, there simply hasn’t been enough time for the survivors to develop unhealthy financial habits. As a result, we expect the default rate to remain low for 2022—around 1% for Europe and 1% to 2% for the US—even if we tip into recession (Display).

High-Yield Defaults Are at Historical Lows
European and US high-yield default rates are at or near their lowest levels since at least 2004.

Historical and current analyses do not guarantee future results.
US average since 1998; European average since 2001
As of March 31, 2022
Source: J.P. Morgan and AllianceBernstein (AB)

The recent wave of defaults and downgrades also strengthened the quality of the high-yield market. At the same time that many of the lowest-rated high-yield bonds defaulted and fell out of indices, many of the lowest-rated investment-grade bonds fell into the high-yield market as fallen angels.

Today, the quality of the high-yield market is the highest it’s been in more than a decade, with BB-rated bonds currently comprising 52% of the market, compared with an average of 46% over the past 10 years. There’s even scope for companies’ appetite for borrowing to fund mergers and acquisitions or increase returns to shareholders to grow, without impinging on ratings.

Reason 2: Extended maturity runways.

What’s more, companies have been focused on extending their maturity runways since the start of the pandemic. That means there’s no approaching maturity wall, where a large share of bond issues matures and issuers are compelled to procure new debt at prevailing rates. In fact, only 20% of the market will mature by the end of 2025, with the lion’s share of maturities coming between 2026 and 2029.

This is akin to opening a pressure valve as yields rise, because gradual and extended maturities will slow the impact of higher yields on companies (Display). Today, the average high-yield coupon is 5.7%—significantly lower than the current yield to worst. Even if we assume that yields continue to rise and remain high for the next four years, coupon rates won’t return to pre-COVID levels north of 6% until January 2026.

Limited Upcoming Maturities Relieve Upward Pressure on Coupon Rates
Only 20% of the high-yield market will mature in next three years, meaning coupons will stay low even as yields rise.

Historical and current analyses do not guarantee future results.
Maturity Runway and Assumed Yield to Worst represented by the Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield 2% Constrained Index. Average Coupon represented by S&P US High Yield Corporate Bond Index Average Coupon. 
As of April 30, 2022
Source: Bloomberg and AB

In other words, companies will enjoy low coupons for many years to come.

Reason 3: High yield that’s truly high.

High-yield valuations are far more compelling today than a few months ago, with yields and spreads at multi-year highs. Either the market is dramatically overestimating default risk, or—rather than being overly concerned about defaults—it’s demanding an elevated premium for elevated volatility. We think the latter is most likely because we expect continued elevated volatility too.

In this case, when market volatility declines from today’s levels, so too will spreads; conversely, if market volatility increases, spreads will likely widen. We expect high volatility to persist for an extended period, keeping spreads wide. In this environment, “carry”—essentially, clipping the bond’s coupon—rules the day.

What’s more, history shows that the US high-yield sector’s yield to worst has been an excellent proxy for its return over the following five years. In fact, US high-yield bonds have performed predictably, even through rough markets (Display).

Five-Year Returns Have Closely Tracked Yield at Start of Period
Starting yield and five-year return closely correlate for six crisis periods over the last 20 years, including the GFC.

Historical and current analysis and forecasts do not guarantee future results. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect any fees and expenses or represent the performance of any AB fund.
As of June 27, 2022
*Yield to worst as of date shown
†Annualized five-year return beginning on date shown
Source: Bloomberg and AB

The relationship between yield to worst and future five-year returns held steady even during the global financial crisis, one of the most stressful periods of economic and market turmoil on record. If an investor had bought high yield in May 2007 at a yield to worst of 7.3% and held onto that investment for the next five years—riding out a 36% drawdown in the high-yield market—that investor would have earned 7.7% in total return on an annualized basis.

Why? High-yield bonds supply a consistent income stream that few other assets can match. And when high-yield issuers call their bonds before they mature, they pay bondholders a premium for the privilege. This helps compensate investors for losses suffered when some bonds default.

What does all this mean for today’s investors? High yield may experience some near-term volatility, but investors with a longer-term lens can ride out short-term drawdowns.

Bonus Reason: Opportunity Cost

Despite these favorable factors, many investors remain leery of jumping on the high-yield bandwagon while yields are still rising. But sitting on the sidelines can be a costly mistake. High yield is among the most resilient asset classes and tends to rebound quickly after downturns, thanks to its consistent, high income. On average, since 2000, high yield rebounded from peak-to-trough losses exceeding 5% in just five months.

And when it did rebound, it went big. Over the 12 months following such losses, the global high-yield market returned 26% on average, and the US high-yield market averaged a whopping 27%. Shy investors missed out.

That’s why, in our view, income-seeking investors should seize the opportunity to add high-yield bonds to their portfolios today.

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations, and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams and are subject to change over time.

About the Authors

Will Smith is Director of US High Yield Credit. He is also a member of the High Income, Global High Yield, Limited Duration High Income, Short Duration High Yield and European High Yield portfolio-management teams. Smith designed and is one of the lead portfolio managers for AB’s Multi-Sector Credit Strategy, which invests across investment-grade and high-yield credit sectors globally.

A disciplined process that focuses on a variety of approaches—including quantitative, liquidity and macro models—to generate returns is key to Smith’s investment philosophy. This is an aggressive style within tight limits, one that emphasizes risk management and a longer investment horizon.

“Building better credit portfolios isn't just about humans doing deep research,” Smith says. “It’s focusing that research where and when other approaches won’t be as effective.”

Gershon M. Distenfeld thrives on facing challenge, solving problems and putting people with different personalities and different viewpoints together to "make the engine run." When he joined AB in 1998 from a role as an operations analyst at Lehman Brothers, Distenfeld had long been fascinated by the high-yield market, and he led that practice at AB from 2006 to 2016 before assuming responsibility for all of credit. He has been co-head of fixed income since 2018.

In an industry that tends to focus on the short term, Distenfeld's investment philosophy takes the long view, considers a range of outcomes and focuses on the downside. This approach puts process and constant innovation at the forefront, making full use of AB's proprietary technology to mine the insights of fundamental and quantitative research.

"We're constantly reinventing ourselves," Distenfeld says. "We don't just sit still. We adapt to new information so we can find new factors that work."

Distenfeld's eye toward the long view extends to his charitable work with organizations like New Jersey NCSY. This youth organization for disaster relief partners with Habitat for Humanity and NECHAMA to repair homes and lives affected by natural disasters.