Encouraging Backdrop for Investors as 2018 Gets Under Way

15 January 2018

3 min read

Daniel Loewy, CFA| Chief Investment Officer and Head—Multi-Asset and Hedge Fund Solutions

Martin Atkin| Senior Investment Director—AB Bernstein

Karen Watkin, CFA| Portfolio Manager—Multi-Asset Solutions

As the new year begins to unfold, the environment for risk assets is still benign: the global economy is strong, monetary policy is accommodative, and volatility is low and steady. At this point, we don’t see excesses developing that could change that.

Global Growth Is Improving

The global economy appears to be hitting its stride, and the impressive performance is broad-based. During 2017, the Purchasing Managers’ Index, a gauge of the manufacturing sector’s overall health, signaled expansion in at least 75% of a sample of 12 large developed and emerging economies (Display).

Global Economic Activity Has Been Broad-Based

As of November 30, 2017
Past performance does not guarantee future results. There can be no assurance that any investment objectives will be met.
Global Purchasing Managers’ Index breadth is measured as a sample of 12 countries: US, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, UK, Japan, Brazil, China, India, Russia and Turkey.
Source: Haver Analytics, IHS Markit and AllianceBernstein (AB)

Monetary policy is providing support, too: even though the Fed is starting to shrink the size of its balance sheet, monetary policy is still accommodative globally. And yields are low, but so is inflation.

Some investors worry that the flatter shape of the US yield curve today may point to slower growth, but in our view, the shape is more likely a result of quantitative-easing dynamics than a signal of recession. The economic cycle may be maturing, but it isn’t coming to an end.

As for US tax reform, we don’t have grand visions of what the new rules will do. But they should be incrementally positive, given the sound macro backdrop. Our bigger concern? A possible pickup in inflation, with tax reform likely to add to the pressure. If policymakers are forced to tighten financial conditions faster than markets expect, we could see a technically driven market sell-off.

The Portfolio Perspective: Equity Risk Is Attractive

Multi-asset strategies integrate a broad, diverse tool kit, including stocks and bonds, diversifying exposures such as real estate and global credit, and factor exposures—investments that thrive in different environments. Those allocations also have to be adjusted as market conditions evolve.

Today, the environment for taking equity risk remains attractive. In addition to the improved economic landscape, earnings growth is robust and labor costs are contained, which support corporate margins. Earnings growth will likely decelerate in 2018, but we still think mid- to high-single-digit percentages are likely.

The positive growth/policy combination should keep volatility low in the near term—a factor that should also help stocks. Extended periods of low volatility may seem uncommon, but history shows that they’re not (Display). And at the moment, we don’t see catalysts that could alter that picture.

Volatility Has Remained Low for Extended Periods Before

As of December 31, 2017
Low-volatility regime is defined as the bottom quartile of the rolling-volatility period.
Source: Bloomberg, S&P and AllianceBernstein (AB)

Regionally, we still see opportunities in US equities, but strong economic growth and tightening labor markets make it likely that we’ll see more interest-rate hikes than the market expects. And US equity valuations are high. That’s not a recipe for outperformance. We see more potential in Europe and Japan right now, where monetary policy is easier and valuations are more attractive.

We also see more potential in equities relative to credit markets right now—although credit offers select opportunities. High-yield bond spreads are very low today; in an environment with solid earnings growth and tight spreads, we think equities should offer better relative upside. In terms of interest-rate exposure, we think it makes sense to consider modestly reduced duration, because there’s risk of more hawkish Fed policy.

Little Sign of Excesses Building Up Right Now

We don’t yet see evidence of overextensions—at least in the private sector—that could change the encouraging investing backdrop. The consumer is in strong shape. Firms have been prudent with capital spending and have been buying back stock, which is shareholder-friendly. We don’t see much overcapacity, and there’s little fundamental evidence that economic growth will slow.

The world’s capital markets have been remarkably placid for quite a while, and this trend seems likely to continue from our vantage point. However, we think it makes sense to include protection against possible volatility spikes—and to continue to adjust portfolio exposures dynamically as 2018 progresses. Portfolio construction doesn’t stand still.

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams.

About the Authors

Daniel Loewy, CFA

Daniel Loewy is Chief Investment Officer and Head of Multi-Asset and Hedge Fund Solutions. He oversees the research and product design of the firm’s multi-asset strategies, as well as their implementation. In addition, Loewy is Chief Investment Officer for Dynamic Asset Allocation, and is responsible for the development and investment decision-making for that service. He is also a member of the Real Asset Investment Policy Group and the Target Date Investment Oversight team. Loewy previously led the Wealth Management Group’s research on the major investment issues faced by our highest-net-worth clients, including asset allocation, alternative investments and tax management. Prior to that, he was a research analyst in the equity research department, where he followed the aerospace and defense and capital goods sectors. Additionally, Loewy has served as an associate portfolio manager for our value equity services. He holds a BS in industrial and labor relations from Cornell University and an MBA from Columbia University, and is a CFA charterholder. Location: New York

Martin Atkin

Martin Atkin is a senior member of the Investment Strategy Group for the Private Wealth Management business. This group is responsible for the development and oversight of the Bernstein investment platform and provides asset-allocation recommendations that reflect current market conditions. He returned to Private Wealth Management in 2020, after eight years as a managing director and leader of the team responsible for global portfolio strategy and communication for AB's Multi-Asset Solutions business. Atkin originally joined Bernstein Private Wealth Management in 2005 and was promoted to national managing director in 2009. Previously, he worked for 23 years in corporate finance at J.P. Morgan, where he served as a managing director and senior investment banker. Atkin was also a member of the investment banking management committee and ran a group that was globally responsible for the recruitment, training and development of all associates and analysts in the investment bank. His early years at J.P. Morgan were spent in London, and he moved to the US in 1987. Atkin holds a BA in economics from Trinity College, Cambridge, and an MA in economics from the University of Cambridge. Location: New York

Karen Watkin, CFA

Karen Watkin is a Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager for the Multi-Asset Solutions business in EMEA. Along with being Portfolio Manager for the All Market Income Portfolio, she is responsible for the development and management of multi-asset portfolios for a range of clients. From 2008 to 2011, Watkin was portfolio manager for the Index Strategies Group, responsible for the development and management of AB’s custom index strategies for institutional clients in EMEA. She joined the firm in 2003, after spending three years as a management consultant in the Capital Markets Group at Accenture. Watkin holds a BA in economics with European study from the University of Exeter and is a CFA charterholder. Location: London