Looking to De-Risk? High Yield Can Help

29 April 2019

2 min read

Gershon M. Distenfeld, CFA | Director—Income Strategies

Will Smith, CFA| Director—US High Yield

The S&P 500 Index hit an all-time high on April 23, thanks to improving investor optimism. But for some equity investors, market highs signal a good time to reduce downside risk.

There are additional reasons investors may want to trim their sails. We’re nearing the end of one of the longest credit cycles on record. And the US yield curve has flattened—historically a signal of slower growth or possibly a recession ahead. Market conditions are likely to get rough.

That’s why it’s time to remind investors that—while equities should continue to comprise a very large part of a portfolio—a complementary allocation to high yield can be healthy.

Want Lower Volatility? Consider High Yield

Investors can efficiently lower their overall risk while only modestly curbing potential returns by shifting a modest allocation away from US equities and into US high yield (Display).

High-Yield Bonds and Equities: Effective Complements

A Combination of High Yield* and Equities† Has Historically Improved Risk-Adjusted Returns

As of December 31, 2018.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There can be no assurance that an actual portfolio based on the hypothetical portfolio underlying the above illustration could be created or, if created, that it would achieve the results implied above or be profitable.
Diversification does not illuminate risk of loss.
*Based upon a hypothetical portfolio; accordingly, such performance is not based upon historical performance of any investment portfolio. This illustration is not intended to provide either a complete analysis regarding any or all of the variables that could affect any particular portfolio. High-yield is represented by Bloomberg Barclays US corporate high-yield.
†Equities is represented by S&P 500 index. All indices cited hearing are used for purposes of comparison purposes only. An investor generally cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AB portfolio.
Source: Bloomberg Barclays, S&P and AllianceBernstein (AB)

How is this possible?

First, high-yield bonds provide investors with a consistent income stream that few other assets can match. This income—distributed semiannually as coupon payments—is constant. It gets paid in bull markets and bear markets alike. It’s the main reason high-yield investors have historically looked at starting yield as a remarkably reliable indicator of future returns over the next five years—no matter how volatile the environment. After accounting for maturities, tenders and callable bonds, the high-yield market typically returns anywhere from 18% to 22% of its value every year in cash.

Along with these payments, high-yield bonds also have a known terminal value that investors can count on. As long as the issuer doesn’t go bankrupt, investors get their money back when the bond matures. All this helps to offset stocks’ higher level of volatility—and provide better downside protection in bear markets.

Average calendar year returns for the S&P 500 and the Barclays US High-Yield Index between 1998 and 2018 were 8.2% and 7.4%, respectively. But the average drawdown for stocks over that period was 11.0%, nearly twice high-yield’s tally of 5.7%.

Recovering Losses Quickly

Some of high-yield’s advantage comes down to valuations. As spreads widen, high-yield bonds’ income-generating potential grows, and investors can reinvest their proceeds at higher yields. And if spreads widen in 2019, causing short-term price declines, investors can take comfort in knowing that high yield tends to make up its losses more quickly than stocks do.

For instance, the high-yield market has suffered 10 peak-to-trough losses of greater than 5% over the last 20 years. On average, investors recovered their losses from those drawdowns in less than six months—and sometimes in as few as two. Meanwhile, stock markets have seen much larger losses and have taken longer to recover from drawdowns.

Of course, it’s still critical to choose your exposures carefully. It’s late in the credit cycle and default rates will likely rise this year. And companies with high debt levels are likely to remain highly sensitive to signs of slower growth.

But over the long run, we’ve seen that adding a dash of high-yield debt to an equity portfolio can tamp down volatility without sacrificing too much return potential. When markets are volatile, that’s a reassuring thought.

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams. Views are subject to revision over time.

About the Authors

Gershon M. Distenfeld, CFA

Gershon Distenfeld is a Senior Vice President, Director of Income Strategies and a member of the firm’s Operating Committee. He is responsible for the portfolio management and strategic growth of AB’s income platform with almost $60B in assets under management. This includes the multiple-award-winning Global High Yield and American Income portfolios, flagship fixed-income funds on the firm’s Luxembourg-domiciled fund platform for non-US investors. Distenfeld also oversees AB’s public leveraged finance business. He joined AB in 1998 as a fixed-income business analyst and served in the following roles: high-yield trader (1999–2002), high-yield portfolio manager (2002–2006), director of High Yield (2006–2015), director of Credit (2015–2018) and co-head of Fixed Income (2018–2023). Distenfeld began his career as an operations analyst supporting Emerging Markets Debt at Lehman Brothers. He holds a BS in finance from the Sy Syms School of Business at Yeshiva University and is a CFA charterholder. Location: Nashville

Will Smith, CFA

Will Smith is a Senior Vice President and Director of US High Yield Credit. He is also a member of the High Income, Global High Yield, Limited Duration High Income, Short Duration High Yield and European High Yield portfolio-management teams. Smith designed and is one of the lead portfolio managers for AB’s Multi-Sector Credit Strategy, which invests across investment-grade and high-yield credit sectors globally. He leads the monthly High Yield portfolio-construction meeting, and is a member of the Credit Research Review Committee, which determines investment policy for the firm’s credit-related portfolios. Smith has authored several papers and blogs on high-yield investing, including one on the importance of using a probability-based framework to build better portfolios. He joined AB in 2012, and spent 2014 in London as part of the European High Yield portfolio-management team. Smith started his career with UBS Investment Bank, working as an analyst with the Credit Risk team and then later on the Fixed Income sales and trading desk. He holds a BA in economics from Boston College and is a CFA charterholder. Location: Nashville

This is a marketing communication. This information is provided by AllianceBernstein Limited, 60 London Wall, London, EC2M 5SJ. Registered in England, No. 2551144. AllianceBernstein Limited is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA - Reference Number 147956). It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to purchase any security or other investment. The views and opinions expressed are based on our internal forecasts and should not be relied upon as an indication of future market performance. The value of investments in any of the Funds can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This information is directed at Professional Clients only and is not intended for public use.

Looking to De-Risk? High Yield Can Help

Want Lower Volatility? Consider High Yield

Recovering Losses Quickly

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