Insights
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As stocks dip, bonds are stepping up.
Global growth should continue to slow if US policy direction remains unclear. Inflation has waned but tariffs could boost prices in the near term. We expect most central banks to ease further yet more slowly. While broad uncertainty prevails, we don’t forecast a recession in any major economy for 2025.
Trade wars threaten longstanding trade partnerships and could weigh on the global economy.
Risk management is being put to the test in 2025. How can equity portfolio teams cope with multiple hazards across equity markets this year?
The effects of mega-forces are turning up in recent policy and geopolitical developments.
In short-tempered markets, taking a long view can help investors maintain confidence.
With more investors looking for defensive trades, what counts as a defensive trade in today’s environment? Differences in valuation—and different interpretations of what counts as defensive—mean that not all such trades are equal.
Staying invested in EM stocks can help avoid sacrificing attractive return potential.
Though geopolitics has come to the fore, insurers are addressing a wide range of other issues.
European equities have started 2025 on a positive note. Several factors could help the market overcome challenging conditions.
The unwinding of “Trump trades,” a spike in volatility and the outperformance of European versus US equities have sparked debate about whether this is a tactical shift or the beginnings of a longer bearish trajectory for markets.
Banks’ retreat is creating opportunity for investors.
The risk of higher equilibrium inflation is a key marker of the notion that investors face a new regime. Recent policy announcements have lent more weight to the idea that the path of inflation might be upward. In this note we focus on the disparate forces that imply a higher long-term level of inflation.