US Election Could Create a Small-Cap Opportunity for Multi-Asset Investors

12 December 2024

1 min read

US Small-Caps Have Tended to Shine After Presidential Elections

Relative Performance of US Small-Cap Equities vs. S&P 500 (Indexed)

Line graph showing small-cap stock outperformance following the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections

Past performance does not guarantee future results.
US small-cap equities represented by Russell 2000 Index. Month 0 is the historical US presidential election date, with relative returns indexed to 1.0 at that juncture.
Through November 30, 2024
Source: Bloomberg, Russell Investments, S&P and AllianceBernstein (AB)

Source: AllianceBernstein (AB)

US small-cap stocks have historically performed well in the months following US presidential elections, regardless of the balance of power (Display). If history repeats itself, this trend could be especially pronounced in 2025, given the potential for lower US corporate tax rates and domestic-friendly policies. And these policies stand a better chance of passing with unified control of the White House and Congress.

The debt structure of US small-caps may also be an advantage if rates decline. According to Goldman Sachs Research, around one-third of Russell 2000 companies are financed by floating-rate debt, compared with just 6% of S&P 500 constituents. So they stand to benefit from lower financing costs—without the added time and cost of refinancing fixed-rate debt. Tariffs increase the risk of inflation, but we still expect interest rates to edge lower in 2025.

Small-company stocks may soon have tailwinds, but investors should be prudent in sizing tactical trades. The small-cap market is vast, with some parts more volatile than others. In our view, rigorous bottom-up research is essential to uncovering high-quality names with competitive advantages and sustainable business models.

History may not repeat itself, but if the incoming administration follows through on its promises—and Congress endorses them—we believe a tactical shift toward small-cap companies could benefit multi-asset strategies.

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams. Views are subject to change over time.

This is a marketing communication. This information is provided by AllianceBernstein (Luxembourg) S.à r.l. Société à responsabilité limitée, R.C.S. Luxembourg B 34 305, 2-4, rue Eugène Ruppert, L-2453 Luxembourg. Authorised in Luxembourg and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF). It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to purchase any security or other investment. The views and opinions expressed are based on our internal forecasts and should not be relied upon as an indication of future market performance. The value of investments in any of the Funds can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This information is directed at Professional Clients only and is not intended for public use.