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Global Macro Outlook: Second Quarter 2025

Apr 01, 2025
1 min read
Global Macro Outlook: Second Quarter 2025

What You Need To Know

Uncertainty is the watchword for the global economy. Dramatic policy shifts—tariffs in particular—by the Trump administration 2.0 have so far surprised financial markets and softened consumer sentiment. But we see a global economy well positioned to absorb potential shocks in the months ahead. 
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Key Forecast Trends

  • US consumer sentiment weakened in response to rapid policy changes, especially trade-related, but the broader impact on consumption remains in question. 
  • The Fed is well-positioned to wait for more information on how economic crosscurrents play out, though we expect rate cuts to resume later this year.
  • In Europe, growth should be mild, but the medium-term outlook has considerably improved amid fiscal reforms in Germany.
  • Too-low inflation remains a challenge in China, where nominal GDP is historically low—likely due to a lack of underlying momentum.
  • US policy framework will be a challenge, but we think the global economic starting point is robust enough to limit the downside risks in all but the most severe scenarios.
Global Macro Outlook: The Next Six Months

Global Forecast

Forecast Overview

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations, and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams and are subject to change over time.

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