Temperature Check for Equity Valuations

21 November 2017
1 min read
Scott Krauthamer, CFA, CAIA| Global Head—Product Management & Strategy
Christopher W. Marx| Global Head—Equity Business Development
Global Equity Valuations: Feeling the Heat

Price/Forward Earnings (Oct 1999–Oct 2017)

Global Equity Valuations: Feeling the Heat

As of October 31, 2017
Past performance and current analyses do not guarantee future results.
Price/earnings ratio based on estimated earnings for the next 12 months. Dashed line represents the average P/E ratio, based on estimated earnings for the next 12 months, form October 31, 1999, through October 31, 2017. EPS growth is earnngs-per-share long-term growth. PEG is price/earnings-to-growth ratio for the next 12 months. PEG percent rank versus history is based on monthly percentiles from November 1, 2007, through October 31, 2017.
US is represented by S&P 500, non-US developed by MSCIEAFE and emerging markets by MSCI Emerging Markets.
Source: FactSet, MSCI, S&P and AllianceBernstein (AB)

Stock markets around the world have rallied this year, and investors are asking whether equities are expensive. Comparing valuations to growth potential helps shed light on the risks and opportunities in equities.

US stocks are relatively expensive compared to non-US developed stocks and emerging-market (EM) equities, based on price/earnings ratios. Comparing P/Es to earnings growth (the PEG ratio) shows that EM equities are particularly attractive versus their own history and developed-world stocks.

Investors can still find opportunities around the world today. But no matter where you choose to invest, the complex valuation landscape warrants a diligent focus on companies with clear sources of revenue gains and solid earnings growth, as well as close scrutiny on potential risks to cash flows.

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams.


About the Authors

Scott Krauthamer is a Senior Vice President and Global Head of Product Management & Strategy, overseeing AB's global investment products across the firm's equity, fixed income and multi-asset strategies. Prior to joining the firm, he held a variety of investment and product-management roles at Legg Mason, U.S. Trust, Bank of America and J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Krauthamer started his career as an analyst at J.P. Morgan in 1998, and his financial-services experience spans investment-management, quantitative analysis, marketing and business development. He holds a BS in finance and management information systems from the State University of New York, Albany, and is a CFA charterholder and a CAIA designee. Location: Nashville

Christopher W. Marx is Senior Vice President and Global Head of Equity Business Development. He is responsible for overseeing the firm's team of equity investment strategists and product managers, setting strategic priorities and goals for the global Equities business, developing new products, and engaging with clients to represent market views and investment strategies of the firm. Previously, Marx was a senior investment strategist and a portfolio manager of Equities, and in 2011 he cofounded the Global, International and US Strategic Core Equity portfolios with Kent Hargis. He joined the firm in 1997 as a research analyst covering a variety of industries both domestically and internationally, including chemicals, metals, retail and consumer staples. Marx became part of the portfolio-management team in 2004. Prior to joining the firm, he spent six years as a consultant for Deloitte & Touche and Boston Consulting Group. Marx holds a BA in economics from Harvard University and an MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business. Location: New York